Overview
While Alberta’s economic prospects remain optimistic, government revenue continues to be volatile as a significant portion is highly sensitive to global economic conditions including commodity prices, interest and exchange rates, and financial markets.
Forecast
Total revenue of $77.9 billion is forecast in 2024-25, $4.4 billion higher than estimated in Budget 2024 and $1.7 billion more than the first-quarter forecast.
Table 1. Total Revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2023-24 Actual | 2024-25 Budget | 2024-25 Second Quarter Forecast | Change from Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 15,160 | 15,604 | 16,552 | 948 |
| Corporate income tax | 7,044 | 7,028 | 7,328 | 300 |
| Other tax revenue | 4,543 | 6,013 | 5,988 | (26) |
| Resource revenue – Bitumen | 14,518 | 12,538 | 15,628 | 3,090 |
| Resource revenue – Other | 4,769 | 4,777 | 4,667 | (110) |
| Federal transfers | 12,336 | 12,640 | 12,753 | 113 |
| Investment income | 4,581 | 3,267 | 3,723 | 456 |
| Net income from business enterprises | 1,237 | 2,123 | 2,041 | (82) |
| Premiums, fees and licences | 5,565 | 5,384 | 5,453 | 70 |
| Other revenue | 4,979 | 4,164 | 3,755 | (409) |
| Total revenue | 74,732 | 73,537 | 77,887 | 4,350 |
Non-renewable resource revenue
Non-renewable resource revenue in 2024-25 is forecast to be $20.3 billion, up $3 billion from Budget 2024. The increase is primarily due to higher bitumen royalties and a narrower light-heavy oil price differential.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to average US$74 per barrel in 2024-25, $2.50 per barrel lower than previously estimated, but in line with Budget 2024.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2023-24 Actual | 2024-25 Budget | 2024-25 Second Forecast | Change from Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitumen royalty | 14,518 | 12,538 | 15,628 | 3,090 |
| Crude oil royalty | 2,972 | 2,779 | 2,957 | 178 |
| Natural gas and by-products royalty | 1,058 | 1,468 | 1,180 | (288) |
| Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 499 | 321 | 370 | 49 |
| Rentals and fees / coal royalty | 242 | 209 | 160 | (49) |
| Total resource revenue | 19,287 | 17,315 | 20,295 | 2,980 |
Tax revenue
Personal income tax
Personal income tax revenue is forecast at $16.6 billion in 2024-25, an increase of $948 million from budget, due to stronger 2024 tax assessments and population increase.
Corporate income tax
Corporate income tax is forecast at $7.3 billion in 2024-25, a increase of $300 million from Budget 2024 due to stronger-than-expected corporate profits.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2023-24 Actual | 2024-25 Budget | 2024-25 Second Quarter Forecast | Change from Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 15,160 | 15,604 | 16,552 | 948 |
| Corporate income tax | 7,044 | 7,028 | 7,328 | 300 |
| Education property tax | 2,526 | 2,733 | 2,732 | (1) |
| Other taxes | 2,017 | 3,280 | 3,256 | (24) |
| Total tax revenue | 26,747 | 28,645 | 29,868 | 1,223 |
More budget information
Find out what Budget 2024 means for you.
A summary of Alberta's Budget 2024 economic forecast.
Budget 2024 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2024.