Overview
Alberta’s economic position as a small, open economy with a large natural resource base makes it sensitive to global economic conditions beyond the province. Alberta’s government introduced a renewed fiscal framework in 2023 to help manage volatile and unpredictable government revenue.
Resources
Forecast
Total revenue in 2024-25 is forecast at $80.7 billion. This is an increase of $7.2 billion over what was forecast in Budget 2024, primarily due to increases in investment income, non-renewable resource revenue, and corporate and personal income tax revenue.
Table 1. Total revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Budget | Forecast | Estimate | |
| Tax revenue | 26,747 | 28,645 | 29,466 | 28,837 |
| Non-renewable resource revenue | 19,287 | 17,315 | 21,509 | 17,067 |
| Federal transfers | 12,336 | 12,640 | 12,958 | 13,287 |
| Fund assets/investment income | 4,581 | 3,267 | 5,171 | 2,882 |
| Other income | 11,781 | 11,670 | 11,587 | 12,064 |
| Total revenue | 74,732 | 73,537 | 80,692 | 74,138 |
Non-renewable resource revenue
Non-renewable resource revenue in 2025-26 is estimated at $17.1 billion – 23% of total revenue. This is a $4.4 billion decrease from the $21.5 billion forecast for 2024-25 due to economic uncertainties, including trade risks, and concerns over weakening demand.
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average US$68 per barrel in 2025-26, $6 per barrel lower than 2024-25, then increase to US$71.50 per barrel by 2027-28.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Budget | Forecast | Estimate | |
| Bitumen royalty | 14,518 | 12,538 | 16,859 | 12,830 |
| Crude oil royalty | 2,972 | 2,779 | 2,946 | 2,510 |
| Natural gas and by-products royalty | 1,058 | 1,468 | 1,161 | 1,228 |
| Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 499 | 321 | 382 | 361 |
| Rentals and fees/coal royalty | 242 | 209 | 161 | 138 |
| Total resource revenue | 19,287 | 17,315 | 21,509 | 17,067 |
Tax revenue
Tax revenue is forecast at $28.8 billion in 2025-26 – 39% of total revenue. This is $0.6 billion lower than in 2024-25.
Revenue from both personal and corporate income tax revenue is set to decrease $0.6 billion from 2024-25. However, other tax revenue is forecast to increase $0.6 billion, mainly as a result of increased education property tax.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Budget | Forecast | Estimate | |
| Personal income tax | 15,160 | 15,604 | 16,120 | 15,510 |
| Corporate income tax | 7,044 | 7,028 | 7,351 | 6,764 |
| Education property tax | 2,526 | 2,733 | 2,732 | 3,124 |
| Other tax revenue | 2,016 | 3,280 | 3,263 | 3,439 |
| Total tax revenue | 26,747 | 28,645 | 29,466 | 28,837 |
More budget information
Find out what Budget 2025 means for you.
A summary of Alberta's Budget 2025 economic forecast.
Budget 2025 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2025.